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If anybody was brave enough to stake any money on Scotland taking
six points off the French in this European qualifying campaign,
then he deserves every penny that he gets.
When this whole competition kicked off just over a year ago, Scotland’s
only interest in it seemed to be the slim chance of beating Lithuana
to fourth place in the group, thereby improving their world ranking.
But now, with three games left to play, qualification for their
first major tournament since 1996 lies in their own hands, after
a monumental week that has seen them defeat Lithuania at Hampden
and then go on to Paris and eke out a 1-0 win, the goal coming from
James McFadden, who can't even get in Everton's team.
It was a classic backs to the wall effort in the Stade de France,
Scotland digging in for the long haul, playing with passion, desire,
determination, all the qualities associated with the Tartan Army
back in the days when they regularly headed off for World Cups.
Of course, Scotland being Scotland, they will still find a way of
turning this into a train wreck and failing to make it to the finals,
presumably by failing to beat the Ukraine at home and Georgia away
in the next set of fixtures, but at the moment, they sit on top
of their group with France and Italy scrapping for second place.
For Alex McLeish, often criticised for lack of tactical intelligence,
beating the World Cup runners-up, in their own backyard, must offer
a sweet sense of vindication for though Scotland were almost entirely
on the back foot, they had a shape and a solidity to their game,
a game plan that they carried out to the letter.
On top of that, Craig Gordon made the $18million fee that Sunderland
paid for him look like small potatoes with a world class display
in goal, a performance that in itself should earn him the chance
to play in Europe’s premier competition.
The biggest task for McLeish will be to play down the euphoria because
as a nation never shy of having a party, the temptation will be
to celebrate qualification already, the root cause for some of Scotland’s
most inglorious failures of the past. Six points in four days is
a phenomenal achievement, but there’s a lot of work to do yet.
And you can say exactly the same about England. The worst team in
Europe a week ago, now they are the conquerors of the world after
solid 3-0 wins over Israel and Russia. Steve McClaren is suddenly
a national hero after enduring all kinds of stick for bringing back
the likes of Emile Heskey and David James into the squad, suddenly
acclaimed a tactical genius.
Yet McClaren’s success shows just how big a part luck plays
in it all, and just how important it is to pick a team, not select
individuals. There’s no doubt England played their best football
in more than two years over the course of these two games, simply
because they were set out like a team, a 4-4-2 that they all understood,
and all got on doing the jobs that, by and large, they do at club
level.
But had Rooney, Lampard, Beckhham or Hargreaves been fit, is anybody
seriously suggesting that McClaren would still have fielded the
team he did?
Would Heskey have been anywhere near the squad?
Would Gareth Barry have had the chance to be the dominant figure
of the two games?
Would England have had balance all of a sudden? No, of course not.
McClaren would have been desperately trying to shoehorn names into
places where they don't fit, picking club reputations instead of
an international team, largely to avoid the media attacks that would
follow if England lost after Gerrard or Lampard had been dropped.
No England boss since Alf Ramsey has had the guts to pick a team
to do a job, irrespective of the names left out. McClaren had to
do it because of circumstances and it has put his side in with a
chance of going further.
But when the big names are fit again next month, will he have to
nerve to tell Wayne, Frank and David that they're not needed?
Will he take this far better balanced side to Moscow and try to
get the points to secure qualification?
Or will he be transfixed again in the glare of the celebrity headlights
and go back to selecting the big names.
McClaren got lucky this week, not least when the referee chalked
off a good Russian goal at 1-0, but then Napoleon always said it
was better to have a lucky general than a good one.
But not even Napoleon managed to win in Russia in the winter.
Where England and Scotland have had a very good week, the wheels
have come crashing off the Northern Ireland wagon, making Lawrie
Sanchez look like something of a genius, not least for dumping the
job while the going was good.
Nigel Worthington has replaced him as boss, only to find that the
normal service of the last 20 years has been resumed and Northern
Ireland are, once again, on a downward spiral. Shocking in defeat
in Latvia, more impressive in defeat in Iceland, either way, it
still adds up to no points, and both in games Northern Ireland contrived
to score the wining goal for the opposition.
There's generosity, and then there's stupidity. As things stand,
it looks as if Worthington will have to conjure up wins in Sweden
and Spain to progress, and that’s about as likely as Sanchez
winning the FA Cup with Fulham. Always leave them wanting more,
it's the best way to get out.
While the Northern Irish cling on to some last vestiges of hope,
their brethren on the other side of the border have come to the
point where all hope must be abandoned. Their week has been every
bit as disastrous, conceding a last minute goal in Slovakia that
meant the loss of two crucial points.
From there, they had to win in the Czech Republic, but that's never
the easiest of tasks and a 1-0 defeat leaves them believing in quantum
mathematics to get them through. Three straight wins over Germany,
Cyprus and Wales probably wouldn't be enough to see them through,
so the pressure on Steve Staunton will only increase.
What they must do is ensure they hold on to third place at worst
though, just to give them a better seeding and a better daw when
the World Cup qualifiers come round next year.
Bizarrely, Wales could yet pip them after a remarkable 5-2 win in
Slovakia off the back of a sluggish defeat at home to Germany. Another
false dawn for the Welsh, or evidence that John Toshack, finally,
is beginning to build a side?
The jury is still out on that one. Unless Robbie Savage is its foreman.
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